In 2009, the “Economic Strategies” published an article on the crises in Russia . Then there were five crises, including the 2008 crisis. The crisis that began in 2014, in our opinion, is the sixth. Exactly this crisis will be discussed in the present article. We shall consider the socio-economic situation in Russia in 2015. And the main emphasis will be made on the state and prospects of the real sector of the domestic economy. The real sector, according to Adam Smith , means extraction of raw materials, production of all types of goods, energy resources, housing and communal services and agriculture. Rendering various services, including financial services, is not considered to be the real sector. The article consists of three parts. The first part is dedicated to external economic and political situation around the Russian Federation. The second part will consider the main processes that took place in the real sector. In the third part, we’ll answer the question of the possible situation evolution in 2016–2017.
Author page: Dmitry Chernavsky
In work integrated (synergetic) approach to a problem of evolution of national (state) idea is used. In him mathematical modeling, the dynamic theory of information and the concept of civilizations are combined. It allows to define accurately the concept “national idea” and to track his role in evolution of society. The special attention is paid to a situation in modern Russia.
The article presents the strategic analysis results of threats and risks to Russia resulting from deterioration of the foreign policy and economic situation. The analysis is conducted in a wide context of the world development, global crisis, technological prospects and geopolitical situation. The article proposes recommendations aimed at countering threats, at strengthening economic and political power of Russia, its international prestige and influence. The proposed system of measures is structured both by terms (for short, medium and long-term perspective) and by areas of activity.
The articles presents studies results of the military expenditure effect on the state economy. It is shown that this effect is ambiguous, that in today’s Russia SDO funding up to 3% of GDP is positive and will contribute to the country’s economic development.
The paper discusses influence of psychological factors on various processes in society and taking them into account in various approaches to macroeconomics, practical economics and sociology. In evolutionary economics psychological factors are taken into account through functions of demand and production, reflecting behavioral responses of society members. The mathematical dynamic model of macroeconomics is constructed on this basis. The article considers several scenarios of the society evolution and their consequences. It is shown that both transitions of society from prosperous state to crisis and its return from crisis to the welfare are possible. The conditions for implementing these transitions are described.
The name “Strategies” (no “Forecasts”, for example) has deep meaning. In our unstable time it is practically impossible to make long-term predictions. However, we can imagine possible scenarios, choose among them the “desired” one and act in this direction — this is the “strategy”.