The article provides an analysis of the possible stabilization of world GDP in the forecast period, including explanation by the systemic long-term falling of oil prices. Given that the world GDP is the value of all goods and services of final consumption, the GDP decline can be attributed to their cheapening. This price reduction can be caused by high rates of innovation and technological development of the world economy. The article presents argumentation that the decline in the world GDP has a longterm nature. Even recessionary development of the global economy is possible. But it is not disastrous. The world economy under the influence of innovation processes is reconstructed through information technology replenishment and through reducing production costs of goods and services for final consumption. The article shows at the model level that countries with a low GDP per capita may have even greater potential for transition to an information economy than countries with a high GDP per capita. This opens a window of opportunities for Russia to modernize the economy in accordance with the evolving trends of the global innovation process.
Author page: Yuriy Plakitkin
To answer numerous questions about the future price dynamics the author carries out a research in the field of cyclical energy resources consumption and cyclical changes in their prices and concludes that the pricing loop will be tightened enough. In this regard, the author believes that the global economy will choose the path of more quick decrease in the world oil price and the lack of need for providing global oil demand by developing new, more expensive fields.