In this article long-term trends of the energy market are viewed not from the point of view of supply and demand balance, as it is usually done, but exclusively analyzing quotations. Particular attention is paid to coal prices, which have been traced since 1834. The main conclusion is that there isn’t any shortage of raw materials on the planet, and the tendency of refusing mineral fuel in favor of renewable sources, if it is manifested in quotations — it will happen only in several decades. Much more important for price dynamics are big cycles of the business situation, on the basis of which a long-term forecast is made.
One of the major goals of political and economic sanctions, imposed on Russia in post-Crimean period, is an attempt of Western geostrategic players to intercept the trade and financial flows between Russia and the countries importing energy and raw resources of Russian or transit origin. These flows are the basis of economic, political and social well-being of Russia. Under extremely severe change of external economic conditions of the Russian energy companies activities an urgent development of a new strategy for their integration into the world economy is required. Such a strategy should be based on the organizational model of the space-stream arrangements and interaction of Russian energy companies, which could be implemented in the most effective way based on the concept of forming energy hubs abroad as a kind of energy infrastructure nodes combining different business profiles of Russian economic agents activities.
Russian strategy in assisting the legitimate leadership of Syria in their fight against terrorist groups has shown the beginning of a qualitatively new stage: not only the USA, but also Russia can now restore law and order in the most important regions of the world. The next Russia’s step in gaining back its role and recognized status of superpower shall be organization of successful reconstruction of Syria’s economy, destroyed by the terrorist war, in conditions of critical limitations of the Syrian national resources for these purposes. This requires elaboration and implementation of Russia’s equivalent of the Marshall Plan. It is proposed to concentrate Russian economic aid and investments in those sectors of the Syrian infrastructure development, that are the most promising for the Russian and Syrian interests, with the key positioning of objects restored or created with Russian participation. The basic imperative here is adjusting in Syria a new model of the Russian opportunities realization in key sectors (nodes) of the global strategic projects implementation as the new format of the Middle East development.
The paper examines in detail the system designs of the global oil and oil products market based on accomplishing a series of preconditions for a global competition compliance (for example, by such indicator as the price-quality of oil and oil products), to which the following compliances can be attributed: the existence of the great number of independent oil producer, as well as producers, suppliers and consumers of petroleum products, the possibility of a free trade of the productive forces (logistics) and oil products produced with the help of such forces. The productive forces include the broad paradigm of activities related not only to mining and processing of oil resources, but also to their transportation through pipelines and marine large vessels. It is also necessary to include here the independence of business entities; uniformity, comparability of oil and oil products; availability of access to objective information about the market.
Prices slump in the world oil markets in the second half of 2014 significantly damaged Russian economy. It became clear that something should be done. The article formulates the main directions and organizational model of forming the system of the EAEU oil and oil products markets. In fact, given the importance of budget revenues and corporate income from the crude oil and oil products sales (including relationship with the national currency exchange rate), it is a question of ensuring national security of our friendly countries through the joint regulation of the union oil markets by the states — the EAEU members. The EAEU system of oil and oil products markets (in the short term, the common EAEU market of oil and oil products) — is not only a mechanism of a certain commodities turnover management, but also a tool supporting the national currency exchange rate, the volume of gold and currency reserves, social programs realization and, therefore, a guarantee of their sustainability development.
Operational result of the strategy being executed by political-economic US clans, which brought to power the current US President Barack Obama and keep under control the majority of European countries political leaders, influence the world economy future and the Russian economy in 2015–2016, is manipulative handling of world oil prices. This strategy is designed to create new economic and political balance of powers in the global arena through trying to expropriate the accumulated financial-economic resources of a number of oil-exporting countries and to focus the short- and medium-term trend of stimulating antirecessionary economic development of the West developed countries, based on increasing natural and industrial resources exploitation, especially Russia, on nonequivalent economic compensation for supplied energy resources. At the same time there is an attempt to unhinge” those political regimes, including Russia, which the West doesn’t like. Russia should draw up adequate conclusions from the current situation, they should form the basis for the national economic sovereignty policy in the ХХI century.
Macro-strategic game of world actors around the oil prices — is not a matter of business, it is a matter of global domination. If Russia sustains translated from abroad strategic trend of macro-organized instability in the form of geo-manipulated oil prices decline, it will mean that the Russian model is not inferior to the US and the EU ones as the main models of forming basic segments of society that finally confirms our status: return among the great powers. Statement of the new forces alignment in the global economy: a legal succession of modern Russia (Third Rome) from the Byzantine, then the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as one of the world’s key political, economic and civilizational centers has occurred.
Oil prices forecast for the period from December 2013 to December 2014, prepared by the Institute of Energy Strategy in collaboration with the Institute for Economic Strategies based on neural model taking into account the experience of the world oil market functioning during the last decades.
Institute of Energy Strategy in cooperation with the Institute for Economic Strategies continues regular publication of the world oil prices forecasts, developed on the basis of a neural model of the Institute of Energy Strategy, taking into account the oil market experience accumulated during the last decades and allowing to estimate the price dynamics volatility (on a monthly basis) in 2013.
Institute of Energy Strategy in partnership with the Institute for Economic Strategies continues to publish regular forecasts of world oil prices, developed on the basis of a neuron model, which takes into account the accumulated experience of the world oil market in the past decades and allows to estimate the volatility of price dynamics (on a monthly basis) in 2013.