Calculation of the final integral index for the Russian Federation, determined through methodology of the “Strategic Matrix” multifactorial model, confirmed the static character of this indicator, the value of which remains low for the last three years. At the same time, we continue to observe mutually-equivocal fluctuations of the calculated indicators both in the factorial and regional sections. At the same time, according to sociological surveys, the remaining problems in the social-economic sphere practically don’t affect the mood of Russians, which is especially important on the eve of the new electoral cycle.
In conditions of the world economy turbulence and coherence and under unprecedented sanctions pressure on the Russian economy, it becomes necessary to analyze the phenomena that caused the crisis processes affecting all spheres of life. Crisis processes — reduction of the population’s incomes, migration processes, in particular in Primorsky Krai, low provision of the population with housing — require new approaches to management. The example of the Far East region show the socio-economic trends. National projects, local programs and subprogrammes represent the system of effective mechanisms and tools for improving the social situation. Recently, an improvement in the moral and psychological climate of the Vladivostok residents is noted in connection with constructing bridges across the Golden Horn Bay and to Russky Island, due to reconstruction of roads, construction of an international airport, the campus construction on Russky Island, creation of the advanced development territory “Russky Island” and the Free port of Vladivostok.
The article presents results of the analysis of inter-regional economic relations conducted using the Applied multiregional interbranch model, mathematical concepts of economic equilibrium and the theory of cooperative games, as well as methods of coalitional analysis, according to which the calculations by all possible regions’ coalitions are carried out. The authors compare results of studies of the USSR’s economic space on the eve of its collapse (in the context of the Union republics) and the modern Russia (in the context of Federal Districts). Economic space of modern Russia is significantly more homogeneous than the USSR before its collapse. But the level of heterogeneity of the existing Russian space is still far too high. The main and the only one (among the Union republics) donor in the USSR space was the Russian Federation. The most large-scale “literally obscene” recipient was Ukraine. Federal districts of modern Russia are sub-dividedon in donors and recipients exactly in half (four/four). Donors of “the first level” — the North-West and Far Eastern Districts, of “the second level” — the Siberian and the Ural districts. The Central Federal District, figuratively speaking, is parasitizing on the “body of Russia”. Its consumption from the all-Russia Fund exceeds its contribution more than by one third of this total fund.
When calculating the final integral index for the Russian Federation, determined according to the methodology of multifactor “Strategic matrix” model, the authors once again noted the low level of this indicator in 2015. It has not changed in comparison with the previous year. But in the factors context they have identified a tendency of compensating the key social indices lowering due to the growth of the secondary ones. Its presence is confirmed by opinion polls of the Public Opinion Foundation, that is, by how the Russians themselves assess changes in their daily life and the state of affairs in solving the problems they face.
One of the information sources for analyzing and evaluating the countries’ competitive positions are the reports of international rating agencies and institutions. In 2016 the Eurasian Economic Commission prepared the analytical report assessing the level of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the international ratings system. In the framework of the work carried out not only the position of each country was analyzed, but the EAEC consolidated position as a weighted average value in proportion to the contribution of the Member State in the aggregate GDP of the Union was also calculated.
The proposed article discusses an approach to determining the possible instruments for managing innovative activity of regions, based on the ratings results.
PEST can be regarded as a high-quality analog of a quantitative mathematical model used, for example, in the budgeting process. Calculations presume a variation of some variables within the model, including the expert one. Such variation is inevitable since any model only to some extent is similar to the simulated system and the “observer’s” expert position is important. At the entrance of the mathematical model there are figures defined with some accuracy, at the output there are also figures, expertly substantiated and simulated. PEST represents a “semantic model” containing basic “event trees”. At the entrance to this model there are events that “happened”. At the output — their development forecast, if “this” has happened, “this and that” will certainly happen and with some probability “or this, or that”. The forecast presumes the work of an expert who subjects the event to a modeling framework of PEST-analysis. With events development in reality it becomes possible to compare two semantic networks, one of which is referred to “forecasted”, and the other — to “happened” events structure. An expert, and in some simple cases even a computer program, can either attribute a happened event to one of the scenario branches existing in the forecast or to come out with a suggestion on the emergence of a new branch, or, finally, to conclude that the given event is an imitation, that is, has a “non-physical character”. The latter is very important, but needs verification by subsequent events. Thus, the proposed PEST-analysis in the context of “world — country — region” is some semantic “model”, forming “forecasted” semantic trees and networks, allowing to classify operational event-series (“extract meaning”) and to forecast their further development from the strategic perspective point of view. This method seems relevant from the perspective of realization (and automation) of the problem of continuous dynamic strategic management, which is extremely important while the world system is passing ugh the “bifurcation point”.
Analyzing actual data of the RF subjects social development, the authors note: as follows from calculation data of integral indicators, defined on the basis of the multifactor model methodology “Strategic matrix of the RF region”, developed by the Institute for Economic Strategies, negative economic trends have not yet practically effected the population living conditions. On the contrary, the all-Russian 2014 final index has even slightly increased compared to the previous year index.
Strategic planning practice in the RF municipal districts on the basis of foresight technology methods, including road mapping, is currently not widespread. The article presents a road map fragment of socio-economic development strategy of the Stavropolsky municipal district of the Samara region, taking into account a concept of a municipal entity as a complex four-aspect system.