The "Economic Strategies" journal

2016




Lessons of Devaluation

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Lessons of DevaluationLessons of DevaluationLessons of DevaluationLessons of DevaluationLessons of Devaluation

The article shows the consequences of the RF Central Bank current monetary policy, analyzes its theoretical prerequisites and the results of its application in practice. In particular, the authors consider the differences between the inflation targeting monetary policy, which is carried out in Russia, and the experience of its application in the EU and the USA. Particular attention is paid to the Central Bank activities during devaluation in 2014 – 2015, immediate consequences for the various sectors of the Russian economy of the measures taken are analyzed in detail. The authors also propose fundamentally different approach to pursuing this policy, necessary to overcome negative results of the previous actions of the Bank of Russia. These steps mentioned in the article imply introduction of a new emission model, transformation of the Russian ruble in the world currency, increasing stability of its exchange rate.

Macroeconomic Interactions in the Space of Russia

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Macroeconomic Interactions in the Space of RussiaMacroeconomic Interactions in the Space of RussiaMacroeconomic Interactions in the Space of RussiaMacroeconomic Interactions in the Space of RussiaMacroeconomic Interactions in the Space of Russia

The article presents results of the analysis of inter-regional economic relations conducted using the Applied multiregional interbranch model, mathematical concepts of economic equilibrium and the theory of cooperative games, as well as methods of coalitional analysis, according to which the calculations by all possible regions’ coalitions are carried out. The authors compare results of studies of the USSR’s economic space on the eve of its collapse (in the context of the Union republics) and the modern Russia (in the context of Federal Districts). Economic space of modern Russia is significantly more homogeneous than the USSR before its collapse. But the level of heterogeneity of the existing Russian space is still far too high. The main and the only one (among the Union republics) donor in the USSR space was the Russian Federation. The most large-scale “literally obscene” recipient was Ukraine. Federal districts of modern Russia are sub-dividedon in donors and recipients exactly in half (four/four). Donors of “the first level” — the North-West and Far Eastern Districts, of “the second level” — the Siberian and the Ural districts. The Central Federal District, figuratively speaking, is parasitizing on the “body of Russia”. Its consumption from the all-Russia Fund exceeds its contribution more than by one third of this total fund.

Sweeping Dustunder the Rug

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Sweeping Dustunder the RugSweeping Dustunder the RugSweeping Dustunder the RugSweeping Dustunder the RugSweeping Dustunder the Rug

When calculating the final integral index for the Russian Federation, determined according to the methodology of multifactor “Strategic matrix” model, the authors once again noted the low level of this indicator in 2015. It has not changed in comparison with the previous year. But in the factors context they have identified a tendency of compensating the key social indices lowering due to the growth of the secondary ones. Its presence is confirmed by opinion polls of the Public Opinion Foundation, that is, by how the Russians themselves assess changes in their daily life and the state of affairs in solving the problems they face.

Economic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings System

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Economic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings SystemEconomic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings SystemEconomic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings SystemEconomic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings SystemEconomic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings System

One of the information sources for analyzing and evaluating the countries’ competitive positions are the reports of international rating agencies and institutions. In 2016 the Eurasian Economic Commission prepared the analytical report assessing the level of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the international ratings system. In the framework of the work carried out not only the position of each country was analyzed, but the EAEC consolidated position as a weighted average value in proportion to the contribution of the Member State in the aggregate GDP of the Union was also calculated.

Approach to Determining the Tools for Managing Innovative Activity in the Region on the Basis of Ratings

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Approach to Determining the Tools for Managing Innovative Activity in the Region on the Basis of RatingsApproach to Determining the Tools for Managing Innovative Activity in the Region on the Basis of RatingsApproach to Determining the Tools for Managing Innovative Activity in the Region on the Basis of RatingsApproach to Determining the Tools for Managing Innovative Activity in the Region on the Basis of RatingsApproach to Determining the Tools for Managing Innovative Activity in the Region on the Basis of Ratings

The proposed article discusses an approach to determining the possible instruments for managing innovative activity of regions, based on the ratings results.

The Crisis of the Russian Economy Development Trend Persists

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
The Crisis of the Russian Economy Development Trend PersistsThe Crisis of the Russian Economy Development Trend PersistsThe Crisis of the Russian Economy Development Trend PersistsThe Crisis of the Russian Economy Development Trend PersistsThe Crisis of the Russian Economy Development Trend Persists

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for the january–april 2016 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

The Last of the Mohicans

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
The Last of the MohicansThe Last of the MohicansThe Last of the MohicansThe Last of the MohicansThe Last of the Mohicans

In modern Russia it is practically impossible to find a person, who has worked with all the country’s leaders from Stalin to Yeltsin. Valentin Falin, Doctor of Historical Sciences, reputable foreign affairs specialist, ex-ambassador of the USSR in Germany, the former CPSU Central Committee Secretary, probably the “last of the Mohicans”. He prepared analytical reports for Stalin and Beria. He wrote foreign policy speeches for Khrushchev. Brezhnev, Gorbachev, Yeltsin relied on his advices. His fate was intervened by Andropov. He was accused of organizing a coup in Germany, the collapse of the USSR and was summoned to court in respect of the famous “CPSU affair”. Valentin Falin since 1950 had a responsible job in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the USSR, in the seventies served as the Soviet ambassador in Bonn, in the eighties — the political columnist of “Izvestia” newspaper and the head of the “News” Press Agency, from 1988 to 1991 — Head of the International department of the CPSU Central Committee and adviser to M.Gorbachev on general political issues. In the interview with Alexander Ageev and Alexander Isayev — fragments of the USSR backstage history through the point of view of its participant and witness.

Economy: Realities and Illusions

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Economy: Realities and IllusionsEconomy: Realities and IllusionsEconomy: Realities and IllusionsEconomy: Realities and IllusionsEconomy: Realities and Illusions

Economic science, which incorporates cognitive illusions of XIX-XX centuries, cannot give an adequate idea of the current economic reality and requires decisive revision. Economy in reality is different, perceived and described not so scientifically, mathematically, based on models, that is, physically, but post-scientifically, over the limits, which is the same — metaphysically.