The "Economic Strategies" journal

2017




While the Recession. What’s Next?

#2. Alliance Great
While the Recession. What’s Next?While the Recession. What’s Next?While the Recession. What’s Next?While the Recession. What’s Next?

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for 2016 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

Problems of Bionetics, Bionics and Cybernetics

#6. The Charm of Unattainable Peaks
Problems of Bionetics, Bionics and CyberneticsProblems of Bionetics, Bionics and CyberneticsProblems of Bionetics, Bionics and Cybernetics

Bionetics is a new science about the nature of virtual reality, it is at the junction of four sciences: psychology, philosophy, genetics and cybernetics. Rapid development of the Internet and computer technologies has contributed to creation of a huge virtual world where many people pass a lot of time. This is part of modern life, which exists independently of our attitude towards it. It is impossible to ignore the virtual world. That’s why we need to learn it and to use it correctly.

Economic Bases of a World Order

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Economic Bases of a World OrderEconomic Bases of a World OrderEconomic Bases of a World OrderEconomic Bases of a World Order

Lately politicians are talking a lot and political scientists are writing about “tectonic shifts” in the modern world, but they have rather vague ideas about the nature of these shifts. Matrix is an attempt to identify the main factors of the processes, taking place in the world economy, to systematize them, to show the main interconnections and, on this basis — to reveal the causes of “tectonic shifts” and their mechanism. The matrix is based on generalized results of many years of research by the world’s largest scientists who are supporting the idea of cyclical nature of evolutionary development. Conducted by N.D. Kondratiev, J. Schumpeter, J. Arrighi, I. Wallerstein, G. Menshem, S.Y. Glazyev, K. Peres and other authoritative scientists, analysis of the world economic development over the past 250 years makes it possible to predict accurately the future development of the world for the next 30-40 years and to outline the main directions of development until the end of the present century. In their forecasts of the future, many domestic and Western political scientists demonstrate linear thinking, because they do not understand the cyclical nature of any, primarily social, development, defining the “future” from today, rather than exploring century-old trends.

The “Anglo-Saxon„ Political Crisis — from Reagan & Thatcher to Trump & Brexit

#6. The Charm of Unattainable Peaks

This article therefore analyses in detail the relation between the economics of neo-liberalism and the deepening US/UK political destabilisation. But, in addition to analysis of immediate events, it must be borne in mind that the UK and US were successively for two centuries the world’s most powerful economies. Analysing the deepening political crisis in the Anglo-Saxon countries, in its fundamental historical context, therefore also allows a clear understanding of the present dynamics of the global economy and geopolitics — as well as making clear why US domestic instability is inextricably linked with international geopolitical instability.

Manpower of a New Country

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Manpower of a New CountryManpower of a New CountryManpower of a New CountryManpower of a New Country

The article tells about the life of the legendary financier, candidate of economic sciences, multiple holder of the Order of the Labor Red Banner Andrei Ilyich Dubonosov (1900–1978). In the Soviet period, he headed the Moscow People’s Bank in London (1959–1967). Under his leadership the bank increased its assets by almost 30 times, began to work actively with British government securities, expanded loans to local urban projects and participation in the foreign exchange market activities. Contribution of Andrei Ilyich into these achievements is enormous. The people close to him — his son L.A. Dubonosov and his student V.V. Gerashchenko share with us their memories of an outstanding banker.

Transformation of the Mechanisms for Managing the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) of Russia in Order to Reduce Risks and Threats: the Kremlin-2018 in a Complex Economic Reality

#6. The Charm of Unattainable Peaks
Transformation of the Mechanisms for Managing the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) of Russia in Order to Reduce Risks and Threats: the Kremlin-2018 in a Complex Economic RealityTransformation of the Mechanisms for Managing the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) of Russia in Order to Reduce Risks and Threats: the Kremlin-2018 in a Complex Economic RealityTransformation of the Mechanisms for Managing the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) of Russia in Order to Reduce Risks and Threats: the Kremlin-2018 in a Complex Economic Reality

The purpose of the present article is to substantiate the directions of transforming the mechanisms of the fuel and energy complex management in Russia in order to eliminate risks and threats to the national economic interests of our country, manifested in the period of oil prices falling and introduction of anti-Russian economic and political sanctions. The authors propose approaches to substantiate the ways for protecting Russia’s economic interests in relation to the fuel and energy complex (FEC) of Russia, including concentration in the state’s hands of export flows of fuel and energy resources management (supply routes, volumes of extraction, transportation), cpecification of payment terms; intercorporate coordination of measures for development, reconstruction and modernization of fuel and energy infrastructure; formation of a qualitatively new infrastructure for wholesale and retail markets for fuel and energy resources (FER); transition to setting-up abroad the energynodal management mechanism regarding supply and transportation of Russian fuel and energy resources; clarification of measures for coordination and operation of profit centers, corporate financial centers, concentration centers of possession and management of property and financial assets in relation to large Russian energy corporations, including their subsidiaries and associates of the company abroad and others. Technology under consideration is proposed as an integral part of the management technologies of the Russian economy branches in relation to possible economic fluctuations of the world economy under conditions of significant changes related to new political realities in the USA, EU, etc.

A View in the Retrospect of Time: A History of State and Business Interaction. Marxist’s Interpretation in the Pre-October 1917 Period

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A View in the Retrospect of Time: A History of State and Business Interaction. Marxist’s Interpretation in the Pre-October 1917 PeriodA View in the Retrospect of Time: A History of State and Business Interaction. Marxist’s Interpretation in the Pre-October 1917 PeriodA View in the Retrospect of Time: A History of State and Business Interaction. Marxist’s Interpretation in the Pre-October 1917 PeriodA View in the Retrospect of Time: A History of State and Business Interaction. Marxist’s Interpretation in the Pre-October 1917 Period

The following two lectures of the series on the role of State in the economy (see ES–2016, N 2, 3, 4) deal with Concepts of the founders of Marxism and their adepts respectively, in the pre-October 1917 and the post-October period on the directions, methods and goals of the State economic policy towards the building of so-called communist society. I identify the vector of economic thought in a separate section due to significant influence that Marxism and Leninism ideas had impinged on the Economics and Politics. A rising tide of interest in the Marxist ideas in some social strata and countries nowadays is due to a slowdown in the global economy and to the aggravation of socio-economic problems. The Marxist views analysis of the State’s attitude towards entrepreneurship is needed to identify the roots of the tragic events that occurred in the twentieth century, and which mark the centenary in 2017.

World Oil Price: Growth or Decline?

#6. The Charm of Unattainable Peaks
World Oil Price: Growth or Decline?World Oil Price: Growth or Decline?World Oil Price: Growth or Decline?

The world price of oil is one of the macroeconomic indicators that significantly affect economic parameters of development in various sectors of the economy. Recently, under the influence of the current insignificant increase of this price, the expectations of its inevitable global growth have increased in the society. So, the state regulator has already prepared a number of strategic materials, including the Energy Strategy of Russia until 2035, where the price of oil in the long run returns to the level of 120–140 dollars per barrel. The authors of the article believe that such expectations of the price are not sufficiently substantiated. Moreover, basing projections on high oil prices, the state regulator may give distorted “signals” to Russian business. In this regard, the article gives a consistent argumentation, supported by the authors’ calculations, where they substantiate that the oil price is likely to “fall” into the corridor of a long-term systemic decline. So, in 2035 the price can be estimated at a value of about 35–43 dollars per barrel. The authors of the article, building the evidence base of the oil price declining trend, applying analytical and statistical methods of research, cite the results of calculations for three different variants. The article points out that the regular change in the price vector — from constantly growing to a systemically falling one — should not only form new “signals” for business and state regulator, but should also determine other boundaries for implementation of previously announced programs and forecasts.

Juvenile Justice Paradox

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Juvenile Justice ParadoxJuvenile Justice ParadoxJuvenile Justice ParadoxJuvenile Justice Paradox

In the proposed article, the authors state inconsistency between the juvenile justice system in contemporary Russia and the population needs. To explain this phenomenon, the authors make a brief historical digression and trace the transformation of traditional family into the nuclear one, alongside with changes in the structure of individual’s needs, conditioned by technological progress. The authors analyze the role of the state in the said process, which, according to the authors, contributes to erosion and destruction of the traditional family values, stimulates decrease in the birth rate among the indigenous population and, at the same time, its increase among migrants, where the values of traditional family continue to dominate due to historical conditions. According to the authors, erosion and transformation of the values of a traditional family and its death as such is just as inevitable as scientific and technological progress. Solution of the problem seems to be in humanizing juvenile justice system and bringing its practice in conformity with the population mentality.