History of Energy Prices

#1. Event Horison
History of Energy PricesHistory of Energy Prices

In this article long-term trends of the energy market are viewed not from the point of view of supply and demand balance, as it is usually done, but exclusively analyzing quotations. Particular attention is paid to coal prices, which have been traced since 1834. The main conclusion is that there isn’t any shortage of raw materials on the planet, and the tendency of refusing mineral fuel in favor of renewable sources, if it is manifested in quotations — it will happen only in several decades. Much more important for price dynamics are big cycles of the business situation, on the basis of which a long-term forecast is made.

References:

  1. Medouz D.Kh., Randers Y, Medouz D.L. Predely rosta: 30 let spustya [Limits of Growth: 30 Years Later]. Moscow, BINOM. Laboratoriya znaniy, 2016.
  2. Campbell C.J., Laherrère J. H. The end of cheap oil. Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78–83.
  3. Sidorovich V. Mirovaya energeticheskaya revolyutsiya: Kak vozobnovlyaemye istochniki energii izmenyat nash mir [The World Energy Revolution: How Renewable Energy Sources Will Change Our World]. Moscow, Al’pina Pablisher, 2015.
  4. Pande A., Hasanov F., Cherif R. Riding the energy transition: Oil beyond 2040, IMF Working Paper, no 17/120, 2017.
  5. US Bureau of the Census. Historical statistics of the United States: Colonial times to 1970. Washington, D.C., US Bureau of the Census, 1975.
  6. Dvir E., Rogoff K.S. Three epochs of oil. NBER Working Paper, no. 14927, 2009.
  7. Hubbert M.K. Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels. Shell Development Company Publication, no. 95, 1956.
  8. Kondrat’ev N.D. Bol’shie tsikly kon”yunktury i teoriya predvideniya: Izbrannye Trudy [Long Cycles of Conjuncture and the Theory of Foresight: Selected Works]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2002.
  9. Kapitsa S.P. Paradoksy rosta: Zakony global’nogo razvitiya chelovechestva [Paradoxes of Growth: The Laws of the Global Development of Humanity]. Moscow, Al’pina non-fikshn, 2013.
Follow the news: